(continued from the main SpokenFood page)
According to Eric Mousel, Extension Specialist in Beef Systems Management Specialist at the University of Minnesota, beef prices are rising because:
- Drought and weather reduced herd sizes.
- Older ranchers retiring means fewer operations.
- The cow production cycle (approximately two years) means supply can’t bounce back quickly.
- The U.S. herd is down about 3 million head since 2018, dropping beef production from 28.4 billion to 27 billion pounds.
These facts are not untrue — but they are wildly incomplete.
When only part of the story is told, the public is misled.
THE PART LEFT OUT: WHERE THE REAL PRICE ACTION HAPPENS
Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Beef prices today are not being driven primarily by lack of cows.
Production is down roughly 5%.
Retail beef prices are up 25% to 45% depending on the cut.
That mismatch doesn’t come from ranches.
It comes from somewhere else entirely.
Mousel said:
- 3 million fewer cows since 2018
- Production fell from 28.4B to 27B lbs
Let’s do the math:
That’s a 5% drop in production.
Retail price increases since 2020?
Anywhere from 25% to 45% depending on the cut.
A 5% supply drop does not cause a 40% retail price increase — ever.
That’s margin expansion.
Full stop.
The Missing Middle: The Packer Oligopoly
Four companies — JBS, Tyson, Cargill, and National Beef — control more than 85% of beef processing in the United States. Do any of them contribute in any way to the University of Minnesota, or directly to any of Mousel’s programs? It’s a legitimate question and would explain why he didn’t point the proverbial “shitty-stick.”
Is Mousel operating as:
Is Mousel operating as:
A ranch-side expert who does not want to blame packers?
—or—
Someone reliant on institutional funding where naming Tyson/Cargill/JBS is taboo?
—or—
A guy who knows his piece of the elephant but not the rest of the animal?
We don’t know. Understand, none of this is malicious, but all of it is incomplete. And incomplete = misleading.
These same companies – Tyson/Cargill/JBS – have been:
- Sued
- Investigated
- Fined
- Accused of coordinating slaughter reductions
- Accused of manipulating cattle prices
- Accused of keeping wholesale beef elevated even as costs dropped
This is not theory.
This is documented history.
Yet none of this came up today with Mousel and while I like Jason DeRusha, he sure didn’t disagree…or maybe he didn’t do his homework. Why? Well, we all know why…and it stinks worse than a barnyard. Hell, I researched and wrote this story in a couple hours after the program aired, mostly because I’ve already got the receipts at my fingertips.
DIESEL IS DOWN. PRODUCTION IS STABLE. PRICES ARE STILL UP.
If the narrative were truly about drought and rancher age, consumers would have felt relief by now.
But something happened that undercuts the whole explanation:
Diesel prices have dropped sharply since 2022 – you’ve all seen the Mona Lisa Graph.
Transportation is a major cost in beef.
Lower diesel should mean lower final prices.
Instead, retail beef stayed high.
What does that tell us?
Margins — not a lack of cows — are driving price inflation.
Packer margins, distributor markup, retailer margins.
The places where transparency disappears and the spreadsheets go dark.
Consumers feel the pain…but they never hear about that part.
THE 2-YEAR COW CYCLE: A DISTRACTION, NOT A DRIVER
Mousel’s “two-year cow cycle” explanation sounds scientific, but it doesn’t explain price inflation.
A calf gestates 9 months, weans in about 6, finishes in 4–6 — roughly 18–21 months.
That’s not the issue.
What matters is who profits, not how long a calf takes to mature.
Production timelines don’t create 40% retail increases.
Margin expansion does.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The narrative given today on WCCO was the sanitized, ranch-side version of beef economics — the part that feels comforting, responsible, and familiar. Again, Jason DeRusha and Eric Mousel aren’t the enemies –– but in this case, they sure as hell aren’t doing us any favors by withholding critical information, for whatever reason…and they missed an awful lot here.
Worse, they left out the single most important part of the beef price story:
–Consumers aren’t paying more because of cows.
-They’re paying more because the system between the cow and the grocery aisle is engineered to extract maximum profit — even when input costs fall.
That’s the part no one in the beef establishment wants to say out loud. Maybe the media, too. Again.
That’s the part SpokenFood will keep saying until someone with real power finally listens.